World Cup 2026 Betting Tips, 22 June: Four Matches, Three Picks

Monday hands us a four-match slate headlined by the defending champions and a piece of history waiting to happen. I have gone through each fixture with the odds board in one hand and the form lines in the other, and I have come away with three picks I am happy to put my name to — plus one match I am leaving firmly alone. Everything below is priced in fractional odds for Irish readers, with kickoff times converted to Irish Standard Time (IST).

A word on the prices first: the match-odds figures here come from a consensus aggregator dated 22 June (~10:00 ET). Treat them as indicative and always confirm the live line before staking.

Argentina v Austria — 6:00pm IST (Group J)

Indicative odds: Argentina 4/7, Draw 13/5, Austria 9/2.

The defending champions arrive on an eight-match winning run, and the storyline needs no embellishment: Lionel Messi sits on 16 World Cup goals after his hat-trick against Algeria, level with Miroslav Klose’s all-time record, and one strike on Monday rewrites the history books. The model numbers back the favourites — Argentina are rated around a 65% win probability against Austria’s 14% — but 4/7 is a short price to back a side that only needs a point to all but seal qualification and may manage the game accordingly.

Austria are no pushovers; they come in on a W-W-W-W-D run and will be without the injured Christoph Baumgartner but boast David Alaba, cleared of a muscle problem, marshalling the back line. "We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi," Alaba told Al Jazeera — and a disciplined Austria are capable of frustrating a champion side in cruise control.

Pick: I am not backing the bare 4/7. The value, if you want involvement, is Messi anytime scorer to chase the record — but that is a sentiment bet, not a model bet. Officially: no bet on the match line.

France v Iraq — 10:00pm IST (Group I)

Indicative odds: France 1/12, Draw 13/2, Iraq 28/1.

This is as one-sided as a World Cup fixture gets. Opta’s model gives France an 88.5% win probability against Iraq’s 3%, and Kylian Mbappé — now France’s all-time leading scorer after his brace against Senegal — is in the kind of form that turns mismatches into statement wins. Iraq, at their first World Cup since 1986, arrive on the back of a 4-1 opening defeat to Norway and have little to suggest they can live with the favourites.

At 1/12 the match line is unbackable. The interest is in the goals and handicap markets, where France’s quality against limited opposition points one way.

Pick: France -2 on the handicap is the sensible expression of a likely comfortable win, rather than tying up funds at 1/12 for a single-figure return.

Norway v Senegal — 1:00am IST, Tue (Group I)

Indicative odds: Norway 21/20, Draw 12/5, Senegal 11/5.

This is my bet of the day. Norway have won their last 11 competitive matches and Erling Haaland has scored in 11 straight Norway games, finding the net on his World Cup debut. Opta still makes this close — Norway 45.0%, draw 25.4%, Senegal 29.6% — which is exactly why a near-even-money price on the form team feels generous. Senegal, beaten 3-1 by France in their opener, have Kalidou Koulibaly back and fit, but they are chasing a result to stay in the group, and that opens the game up in Norway’s favour.

Pick: Norway to win at 21/20. With knockout implications on the line and Haaland in this kind of rhythm, even-money on the in-form side is the standout value on the card.

Jordan v Algeria — 4:00am IST, Tue (Group J)

Indicative odds: Jordan 21/4, Draw 3/1, Algeria 1/2.

Algeria are heavy favourites with Riyad Mahrez returning to the starting XI after a tactical rest against Argentina. Jordan, who memorably scored their first-ever World Cup goal through Ali Olwan, are rank outsiders here. At 1/2 Algeria offer little for the risk in a match where one early goal could settle things — and at a 4:00am Irish kickoff, this is one for the dedicated only.

Pick: No bet. The price is too short and the slot too unsociable to justify involvement.

The Card at a Glance

Match odds: consensus aggregator, as of 22 June 2026 (~10:00 ET); indicative — confirm the live line before staking. Form and probability data from Opta via The Analyst, ESPN and Al Jazeera.

For the bigger picture on the title race see our outright winner analysis and the live odds board. Tomorrow we preview England v Ghana, a fixture with far more British-Irish interest.

Value Verdict: One confident pick (Norway), one sensible handicap angle (France) and two matches I am happy to swerve. The discipline today is in what you leave alone — short favourites and 4:00am kickoffs are how good cards turn into bad weeks. New customers can compare these lines at our reviewed Irish-facing partners such as Boomerang Bet, ZotaBet and MrPacho, all quoting in euro. Stake responsibly — see our responsible gambling guide.

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